It’s that time of year again, where every filmmaker and their second cousin’s sister’s great-uncle’s goldfish throws in their opinion on who’s going to win and who’s going to lose. And, okay, I’m about 98% sure no one gives much of a crap what I think about the Oscars. But I still want to put in my two cents, so here’s how I think it’s going to go down:
Best Picture
What’s going to win: Probably Boyhood.
What SHOULD win: Selma, Birdman, or Grand Budapest Hotel. Okay, if I were an Academy voter, I’d be totally torn.
Why: Boyhood has generated a shit-ton of buzz. Problem is, it’s a pretty mediocre movie that masquerades as a good movie under the guise of “innovation.” For me, it doesn’t work--I’ve seen staged one-second-a-day clickbait that was more impressive--but a lot of people, including the Academy apparently, think it deserves even more attention than it’s already gotten. Which sucks, because it’s taking away from the far more deserving films that, unlike Boyhood, actually had this necessary little thingie called a script. Which brings me to…
Best Adapted Screenplay
What’s going to win: This one’s tricky, but I’d put my money on American Sniper.
What SHOULD win: American Sniper
Why: First of all, can someone please tell me how in God’s name Inherent Vice got nominated over Gone Girl? Seriously. I really, really need to know how that happened, because Gone Girl was a masterpiece and the only thing worse than the script for Inherent Vice is the script for Boyhood (more on that in a minute). So no, I’m not thrilled that American Sniper is the top choice for Best Adapted. But you know, considering what it’s up against (SERIOUSLY PLEASE TELL ME WHO THEY BRIBED TO GET INHERENT VICE NOMINATED), I’d rather see that one take home the prize.
Best Original Screenplay
What’s going to win: Again, it’s a toss-up, but I’m going with Birdman.
What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel. (Sorry, Ian.)
Why: Because yes, Birdman was a phenomenal movie, and if Michael Keaton doesn’t win Best Actor I will probably cry, but Grand Budapest Hotel had some of the best dialogue I’ve seen in a very long time. (And that’s saying something, because I’ve seen some damn good movies recently.) The script is peppered with blink-and-you’ll-miss-it jokes--my favorite kind--and plenty of moments that reveal Gustave as the badass second-cousin to Atticus Finch that he clearly is. But, slight disclaimer here, I haven’t seen Nightcrawler, so maybe that one will sneak up and grab the Oscar, and maybe it deserves the Oscar--I don’t know. For now, though, I’m definitely rooting for Grand Budapest Hotel...and if Boyhood wins THIS category, there will be a revolt.
Best Leading Actress
Who’s going to win: Julianne Moore. Without a doubt.
Who SHOULD win: Rosamund Pike.
Why: Because much as I love Julianne Moore (and, please believe me, I REALLY love Julianne Moore), I truly hate the convention of giving the Oscar to whoever plays the sickest/most pitiable character, which is why I am going to flip epic levels of shit if Eddie Redmayne beats Michael Keaton. Yes, Moore is a great actress, but why is it this role that’s getting her attention when she’s played other, better characters in the past? As for Pike--dear God, I don’t think any villain from any horror movie I’ve ever seen has scared me the way she did. She was like a female Loki. And call me Crazy Feminist, I don’t care, but it was breathtakingly refreshing to see a girl get to play the psycho criminal--and get nominated for it--for once.
Best Leading Actor
Who’s going to win: Either Michael Keaton or Bradley Cooper
Who SHOULD Win: Michael Keaton
Why: I’ll admit I was pleasantly surprise by Bradley Cooper; up until now the most complex character I’ve seen him play was a weapon-crazy cyborg raccoon. American Sniper definitely changed my mind about him, a lot. With that said, if it were up to me, I’d still choose Keaton. He’s waaaay overdue for some recognition as the boss actor that he is, and whether it’s your taste or not you have to admit that objectively, Birdman was an absolutely amazing film. And, okay, maybe I just liked the character that Keaton played in Birdman better than the character that Cooper played in American Sniper. But that’s just me.
Best Animated Feature
What’s going to win: Hopefully, anything but How to Train Your Dragon 2.
What SHOULD win: Lego Movie…OH WAIT IT CAN’T BECAUSE IT WASN’T NOMINATED.
Why: Can you tell I’m just the tiniest bit upset about this? I mean, really. First How to Train Your Dragon 2 won the Golden Globes, and just how that happened I’ll never know--maybe the entire Foreign Press has a collective crush on Hiccup; that’s about all I got--and now this? WHY IS THIS MOVIE NOT GETTING THE CRITICAL ATTENTION IT OBVIOUSLY DESERVES? The most original, imaginative, freaking fantastic animated film of 2014 basically got flipped a big, fat bird and I honest to God can’t understand why. Seriously, can someone explain this to me? This is even more outrageous than Gone Girl getting passed over in favor of Inherent Vice. This verges into insanity. …Okay, fine. If it can’t be Lego Movie, then at least give it to Big Hero 6. Give Marvel some love.
Best Supporting Actress
Who’s going to win: Patricia Arquette
Who SHOULD win: Emma Stone
Why: The reason Arquette stands out in Boyhood is because basically every other actor in there is pretty much useless. Personally I think she was better as Kissin’ Kate Barlow than she in Boyhood--but there was no way in hell anyone was going to give her any attention for that, God forbid the Academy bestow any merit upon a lowly children’s film. And yes, I know, my slant towards Birdman is showing. But you can’t deny that the Emma Stone we see here is not the one we saw in Easy A. This is not teen-movie convention. This is not something we’d see her be honored for at the Kids Choice Awards. In Birdman, she’s a force to be reckoned with--you’d have to be, to hold your own against Michael Keaton, for God’s sake.
Best Supporting Actor
Who’s going to win: Either J.K. Simmons or Ethan Hawke
Who SHOULD win: Mark Ruffalo
Why: Because Ethan Hawke can’t act to save his life (and if you don’t believe me, allow me to point you in the direction of a one-note little gem called Before Sunrise) and Mark Ruffalo was the only thing that, for me, made Foxcatcher remotely watchable. I suppose I don’t mind if J.K. Simmons takes it home, though…admittedly I haven’t seen Whiplash in its entirety, but from what I’ve seen, he turned in a pretty solid performance. Still, I’d love to see Ruffalo take home an Oscar. (And no, that’s not a mild--and by mild I mean huge--crush on Mark Ruffalo talking. Nope, not at all.)
Best Director
Who’s going to win: Richard Linklater
Who SHOULD win: Wes Anderson (again, sorry Ian.)
Why: Look, I really don’t mean to hate on Linklater. I don’t hate him, at least, not the way I hate James Cameron or Lars Von Trier. It just seriously hacks me off that he’s getting buckets and buckets of attention for a film that is not only “pretty good” at best, but it’s not even his best work. I know independent filmmakers need and deserve all the love they can get, but seriously, what about Beasts of the Southern Wild, or Milk, or any of the other films by great independent filmmakers that were passed over in Oscars past? Anyway, bottom line: Linklater doesn’t suck. But Grand Budapest Hotel is a thing of beauty. I think I’ve already said everything I needed to say about this film, but--okay, one more: the landscape reminds me of Fearless Vampire Killers. There, I just gave you the perfect excuse to go see it.
Best Film Editing
What’s going to win: Sadly, it will probably be Boyhood.
What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel.
Why: Because Grand Budapest Hotel had better pacing, that’s why. I’ve already ranted at length about Boyhood. Moving on.
Best Hair/Makeup
What’s going to win: Grand Budapest Hotel (if there is ANY justice in this world)
What SHOULD win: ...Do I even need to say it?
Why: Foxcatcher didn’t need to be nominated, believe me--I’m actually shocked The Hobbit didn’t snag a nom, but I’m not going to start a rampage over that--and as much as I loved Guardians of the Galaxy, I’ve given up hope that a quirky, vintage-styled superhero film could win out over the breathtaking piece of art that is Grand Budapest Hotel.
Best Score
What’s going to win: Interstellar, probably.
What SHOULD win: Either Interstellar or Grand Budapest Hotel.
Why: I’ll be happy either way, but I’m pretty sure Hans Zimmer is going to take this one. Again, disclaimer though, I haven’t seen Mr. Turner, so I’m kind of withholding judgement for this category.
Best Original Song
What’s going to win: “Glory.” I’m almost 100% positive.
What SHOULD win: “Everything is Awesome.”
Why: Because if the damn movie didn’t even get nominated, the freaking Lego Movie theme song should get some love, for God’s sake. Come on, Academy. Redeem yourself. It’s not too late.
Best VFX
What’s going to win: Interstellar or Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
What SHOULD win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Why: Because holy crap, did that movie go out of its freaking way to convince us that Vin Diesel was a tree and Bradley Cooper was actually a raccoon. Also, it convinced us that Josh Brolin was Thanos, Karen Gillian was a psychopathic Inspector Gadget, and Lee “The Piemaker” Pace is the sexiest BAMF on the planet. Oh wait...maybe they didn’t actually need to put much effort into that last one. ;)
Best Costume Design
What’s going to win: Into the Woods
What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel
Why: I kind of wish Guardians had been nominated for this category instead of Best Hair and Makeup, because the costumes in that film were damn amazing. But I wouldn’t mind seeing Grand Budapest Hotel take this one. Think about it: Into the Woods had a stage musical to go off of, while Hotel had to start from scratch. And come on, have you seen the period costumes in that movie? *swoon*
Best Production Design
What’s going to win: Into the Woods
What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel
Why: Again, I’d have loved to see Guardians of the Galaxy nominated for this, but let’s face it, that was never going to happen. So yes, I’d love to see Grand Budapest Hotel take this one--because, again, period sets. Holy crap, have you seen the period sets in that movie the whole thing even the prison looks like a damn postcard.
Okay. Now, I know I skipped a few, but I’m still divided on who’s going to win either of the Best Sound awards and I’m also purposefully leaving out any categories wherein I’ve seen none of the films, and sad as it is, I haven’t seen any of the Best Documentary, Best Foreign or Best Short nominees, except for the animated short Feast (and I don’t even have to worry about that one, I know it’s going to win). So I’m going to leave it up to the experts to discuss those nominees. I will say, though, that I have immense trust in the Academy’s taste in documentaries ever since they refused to bow to the hype and give Blackfish so much as a nomination.
Now everyone who believes in God, pray for Ian because he’s going to have to hear every single bit of my freaked-out commentary and put up with my mini-meltdowns when all my favorites lose on February 22nd.
Happy Oscars, everyone, and may the odds be ever in your favor. (Unless you’re Richard Linklater. In which case, please go make a movie that actually deserves an Academy Award. And give Ellar Coltrane some better material next time, you severely underutilized that talent. For shame. AND WE BOTH KNOW YOU CAN WRITE A BETTER SCRIPT THAN THAT. CHRIST DO I HAVE TO SPELL EVERYTHING OUT FOR YOU, LINKLATER?!?)
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