My Oscar Predictions

It’s that time of year again, where every filmmaker and their second cousin’s sister’s great-uncle’s goldfish throws in their opinion on who’s going to win and who’s going to lose. And, okay, I’m about 98% sure no one gives much of a crap what I think about the Oscars. But I still want to put in my two cents, so here’s how I think it’s going to go down:

Best Picture

What’s going to win: Probably Boyhood.

What SHOULD win: Selma, Birdman, or Grand Budapest Hotel. Okay, if I were an Academy voter, I’d be totally torn.

Why: Boyhood has generated a shit-ton of buzz. Problem is, it’s a pretty mediocre movie that masquerades as a good movie under the guise of “innovation.” For me, it doesn’t work--I’ve seen staged one-second-a-day clickbait that was more impressive--but a lot of people, including the Academy apparently, think it deserves even more attention than it’s already gotten. Which sucks, because it’s taking away from the far more deserving films that, unlike Boyhood, actually had this necessary little thingie called a script. Which brings me to…

Best Adapted Screenplay

What’s going to win: This one’s tricky, but I’d put my money on American Sniper.

What SHOULD win: American Sniper

Why: First of all, can someone please tell me how in God’s name Inherent Vice got nominated over Gone Girl? Seriously. I really, really need to know how that happened, because Gone Girl was a masterpiece and the only thing worse than the script for Inherent Vice is the script for Boyhood (more on that in a minute). So no, I’m not thrilled that American Sniper is the top choice for Best Adapted. But you know, considering what it’s up against (SERIOUSLY PLEASE TELL ME WHO THEY BRIBED TO GET INHERENT VICE NOMINATED), I’d rather see that one take home the prize.

Best Original Screenplay

What’s going to win: Again, it’s a toss-up, but I’m going with Birdman.

What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel. (Sorry, Ian.)

Why: Because yes, Birdman was a phenomenal movie, and if Michael Keaton doesn’t win Best Actor I will probably cry, but Grand Budapest Hotel had some of the best dialogue I’ve seen in a very long time. (And that’s saying something, because I’ve seen some damn good movies recently.) The script is peppered with blink-and-you’ll-miss-it jokes--my favorite kind--and plenty of moments that reveal Gustave as the badass second-cousin to Atticus Finch that he clearly is. But, slight disclaimer here, I haven’t seen Nightcrawler, so maybe that one will sneak up and grab the Oscar, and maybe it deserves the Oscar--I don’t know. For now, though, I’m definitely rooting for Grand Budapest Hotel...and if Boyhood wins THIS category, there will be a revolt.

Best Leading Actress

Who’s going to win: Julianne Moore. Without a doubt.

Who SHOULD win: Rosamund Pike.

Why: Because much as I love Julianne Moore (and, please believe me, I REALLY love Julianne Moore), I truly hate the convention of giving the Oscar to whoever plays the sickest/most pitiable character, which is why I am going to flip epic levels of shit if Eddie Redmayne beats Michael Keaton. Yes, Moore is a great actress, but why is it this role that’s getting her attention when she’s played other, better characters in the past? As for Pike--dear God, I don’t think any villain from any horror movie I’ve ever seen has scared me the way she did. She was like a female Loki. And call me Crazy Feminist, I don’t care, but it was breathtakingly refreshing to see a girl get to play the psycho criminal--and get nominated for it--for once.

Best Leading Actor

Who’s going to win: Either Michael Keaton or Bradley Cooper

Who SHOULD Win: Michael Keaton

Why: I’ll admit I was pleasantly surprise by Bradley Cooper; up until now the most complex character I’ve seen him play was a weapon-crazy cyborg raccoon. American Sniper definitely changed my mind about him, a lot. With that said, if it were up to me, I’d still choose Keaton. He’s waaaay overdue for some recognition as the boss actor that he is, and whether it’s your taste or not you have to admit that objectively, Birdman was an absolutely amazing film. And, okay, maybe I just liked the character that Keaton played in Birdman better than the character that Cooper played in American Sniper. But that’s just me.

Best Animated Feature

What’s going to win: Hopefully, anything but How to Train Your Dragon 2.

What SHOULD win: Lego Movie…OH WAIT IT CAN’T BECAUSE IT WASN’T NOMINATED.

Why: Can you tell I’m just the tiniest bit upset about this? I mean, really. First How to Train Your Dragon 2 won the Golden Globes, and just how that happened I’ll never know--maybe the entire Foreign Press has a collective crush on Hiccup; that’s about all I got--and now this? WHY IS THIS MOVIE NOT GETTING THE CRITICAL ATTENTION IT OBVIOUSLY DESERVES? The most original, imaginative, freaking fantastic animated film of 2014 basically got flipped a big, fat bird and I honest to God can’t understand why. Seriously, can someone explain this to me? This is even more outrageous than Gone Girl getting passed over in favor of Inherent Vice. This verges into insanity. …Okay, fine. If it can’t be Lego Movie, then at least give it to Big Hero 6. Give Marvel some love.

Best Supporting Actress

Who’s going to win: Patricia Arquette

Who SHOULD win: Emma Stone

Why: The reason Arquette stands out in Boyhood is because basically every other actor in there is pretty much useless. Personally I think she was better as Kissin’ Kate Barlow than she in Boyhood--but there was no way in hell anyone was going to give her any attention for that, God forbid the Academy bestow any merit upon a lowly children’s film. And yes, I know, my slant towards Birdman is showing. But you can’t deny that the Emma Stone we see here is not the one we saw in Easy A. This is not teen-movie convention. This is not something we’d see her be honored for at the Kids Choice Awards. In Birdman, she’s a force to be reckoned with--you’d have to be, to hold your own against Michael Keaton, for God’s sake.

Best Supporting Actor

Who’s going to win: Either J.K. Simmons or Ethan Hawke

Who SHOULD win: Mark Ruffalo

Why: Because Ethan Hawke can’t act to save his life (and if you don’t believe me, allow me to point you in the direction of a one-note little gem called Before Sunrise) and Mark Ruffalo was the only thing that, for me, made Foxcatcher remotely watchable. I suppose I don’t mind if J.K. Simmons takes it home, though…admittedly I haven’t seen Whiplash in its entirety, but from what I’ve seen, he turned in a pretty solid performance. Still, I’d love to see Ruffalo take home an Oscar. (And no, that’s not a mild--and by mild I mean huge--crush on Mark Ruffalo talking. Nope, not at all.)

Best Director

Who’s going to win: Richard Linklater

Who SHOULD win: Wes Anderson (again, sorry Ian.)

Why: Look, I really don’t mean to hate on Linklater. I don’t hate him, at least, not the way I hate James Cameron or Lars Von Trier. It just seriously hacks me off that he’s getting buckets and buckets of attention for a film that is not only “pretty good” at best, but it’s not even his best work. I know independent filmmakers need and deserve all the love they can get, but seriously, what about Beasts of the Southern Wild, or Milk, or any of the other films by great independent filmmakers that were passed over in Oscars past? Anyway, bottom line: Linklater doesn’t suck. But Grand Budapest Hotel is a thing of beauty. I think I’ve already said everything I needed to say about this film, but--okay, one more: the landscape reminds me of Fearless Vampire Killers. There, I just gave you the perfect excuse to go see it.

Best Film Editing

What’s going to win: Sadly, it will probably be Boyhood.

What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel.

Why: Because Grand Budapest Hotel had better pacing, that’s why. I’ve already ranted at length about Boyhood. Moving on.

Best Hair/Makeup

What’s going to win: Grand Budapest Hotel (if there is ANY justice in this world)

What SHOULD win: ...Do I even need to say it?

Why: Foxcatcher didn’t need to be nominated, believe me--I’m actually shocked The Hobbit didn’t snag a nom, but I’m not going to start a rampage over that--and as much as I loved Guardians of the Galaxy, I’ve given up hope that a quirky, vintage-styled superhero film could win out over the breathtaking piece of art that is Grand Budapest Hotel.

Best Score

What’s going to win: Interstellar, probably.

What SHOULD win: Either Interstellar or Grand Budapest Hotel.

Why: I’ll be happy either way, but I’m pretty sure Hans Zimmer is going to take this one. Again, disclaimer though, I haven’t seen Mr. Turner, so I’m kind of withholding judgement for this category.

Best Original Song

What’s going to win: “Glory.” I’m almost 100% positive.

What SHOULD win: “Everything is Awesome.”

Why: Because if the damn movie didn’t even get nominated, the freaking Lego Movie theme song should get some love, for God’s sake. Come on, Academy. Redeem yourself. It’s not too late.

Best VFX

What’s going to win: Interstellar or Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

What SHOULD win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Why: Because holy crap, did that movie go out of its freaking way to convince us that Vin Diesel was a tree and Bradley Cooper was actually a raccoon. Also, it convinced us that Josh Brolin was Thanos, Karen Gillian was a psychopathic Inspector Gadget, and Lee “The Piemaker” Pace is the sexiest BAMF on the planet. Oh wait...maybe they didn’t actually need to put much effort into that last one. ;)

Best Costume Design

What’s going to win: Into the Woods

What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Why: I kind of wish Guardians had been nominated for this category instead of Best Hair and Makeup, because the costumes in that film were damn amazing. But I wouldn’t mind seeing Grand Budapest Hotel take this one. Think about it: Into the Woods had a stage musical to go off of, while Hotel had to start from scratch. And come on, have you seen the period costumes in that movie? *swoon*

Best Production Design

What’s going to win: Into the Woods

What SHOULD win: Grand Budapest Hotel

Why: Again, I’d have loved to see Guardians of the Galaxy nominated for this, but let’s face it, that was never going to happen. So yes, I’d love to see Grand Budapest Hotel take this one--because, again, period sets. Holy crap, have you seen the period sets in that movie the whole thing even the prison looks like a damn postcard.

Okay. Now, I know I skipped a few, but I’m still divided on who’s going to win either of the Best Sound awards and I’m also purposefully leaving out any categories wherein I’ve seen none of the films, and sad as it is, I haven’t seen any of the Best Documentary, Best Foreign or Best Short nominees, except for the animated short Feast (and I don’t even have to worry about that one, I know it’s going to win). So I’m going to leave it up to the experts to discuss those nominees. I will say, though, that I have immense trust in the Academy’s taste in documentaries ever since they refused to bow to the hype and give Blackfish so much as a nomination.

Now everyone who believes in God, pray for Ian because he’s going to have to hear every single bit of my freaked-out commentary and put up with my mini-meltdowns when all my favorites lose on February 22nd.

Happy Oscars, everyone, and may the odds be ever in your favor. (Unless you’re Richard Linklater. In which case, please go make a movie that actually deserves an Academy Award. And give Ellar Coltrane some better material next time, you severely underutilized that talent. For shame. AND WE BOTH KNOW YOU CAN WRITE A BETTER SCRIPT THAN THAT. CHRIST DO I HAVE TO SPELL EVERYTHING OUT FOR YOU, LINKLATER?!?)

2014 Top 10

It's that time of year. Film and media-related websites are buzzing about the Oscars, and I for one am holding my breath to see who gets nominated. I'm sure that, as usual, my ideas of who should get recognition are very different from the Academy's, but here's who I'd see get their names up in lights if I could:

10. The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
I'd give it: Best VFX, no contest.
Why: As a Tolkien fan, Battle of the Five Armies makes me cringe. Not only did Pete Jackson add stuff from the Silmarillon, but he also added crap that never freaking happened in anything that Tolkien ever wrote (*cough*TAURIEL/KILI/LEGOLASLOVETRIANGLE*cough cough*). And I sincerely wish that they'd kept the adaptation down to two movies, or better yet just one, because there's just not enough plot, even with all the crap they added, to make the book fill three movies. But with all that said, the casting is fantastic, Martin Freeman is hilarious, and the visual effects? Stunning. What Five Armies lacks in plot, it makes up in brilliant CGI, and while I'm generally not a fan of CGI I think that it's incredibly well-done here. I'll admit Five Armies might have some competition from Interstellar, but I'm about 99.9% sure that when all is said and done, the Academy will agree with me on this one.

9. Interstellar
I'd give it: Best Sound Editing
Why: I'll admit, this wasn't my favorite Nolan film ever, mainly because it was so damn long. But holy crap was there a lot to love here. Again I say if Best Casting were a thing, that's for sure what Interstellar would win. The choices they made, from Michael Caine to Mackenzie Foy, were spot-on, and I loved the cameos they managed to sneak in. But there isn't a Best Casting award, so if I were in the Academy, I'd recognize my second-favorite element of the film: the sound. Oh, dear lord, the sound. The score, the diegetic sound, the periods of silence at just the right time--all I can say is that if Inception won Best Sound and Best VFX in 2010, Interstellar should definitely do the same.

8. Lego Movie
I'd give it: Best Animated Feature
Why: Okay, yeah, when I first saw the trailer all I could think was "Dear God, will they stop at nothing to wring money out of people?" But then I went and saw it, and holy dear mother of God it was fantastic. I wasn't expecting it to be so funny; I went in there predicting juvenile humor and idiotic action sequences. For the first fifteen minutes or so I was greatly annoyed at the unsubtle message of non-conformity coming at me from an entertainment conglomerate partnered with a toy company (ironic much?), but as the film continued I realized, hey, they actually have a point here. I won't spoil the ending for anyone who still hasn't seen it (GO RENT THIS MOVIE I'M BEGGING YOU), but it was tear-jerking and hilarious at the same time--not something I can say for most kids' films, animated or otherwise.

7. Captain America: Winter Soldier
I'd give it: Anthony Mackie or Sebastian Stan for Best Supporting Actor
Why: I know, I know. It's a superhero movie. I'm not stupid, I know that the chance of either of these two men winning Best Supporting Actor is about the same as Kirk Cameron supporting same-sex marriage, because superhero movies just don't win Academy Awards--not often, and not any of the "major" ones. (I still can't get over the fact that Gary Oldman never got a single damn nomination for Dark Knight or Dark Knight Rises--Academy, what is wrong with you?!) But both Mackie and Stan turned in fantastic performances in a film already chock-full of insanely good actors (Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Samuel L. Jackson...and, oh yeah, Robert Redford), and if I were in charge, they'd get some serious recognition.

6. Big Hero 6
I'd give it: Best Editing, Best Sound Editing
Why: Okay, maybe I only have a giant soft spot for this movie because I'm a huge Marvel nerd. I admit it. BUT. With that being said, the pacing of the story and the use of sound in Big Hero 6 is damn near flawless. I can honestly say I didn't see the majority of the "plot twists" coming, and even the longest action sequences never seem to drag, which is the problem I have with oh, maybe 90% of the action/fantasy/superhero films that I watch--yes, Five Armies, I'm looking at you. And call me crazy, but the sound was right up there with Interstellar. I could not only hear every line of dialogue, but I never got blasted out of my seat with the music or explosion effects, both of which are common issues with action-packed superhero films.

5. Guardians of the Galaxy
I'd give it: Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design
Why: Again I say, I know that both of these are long shots. My boyfriend told me he's rooting for Birdman to win Best Cinematography and, okay, I understand why--it wasn't my favorite, but I can still see the appeal. As for production design, I feel like movies like Five Armies and Mockingjay 2 will have a better shot. Like I said, superhero films are frequently overlooked by the Academy, which I'll probably rant about in greater detail later. But the sets in this film are absolutely fantastic, because they're the perfect blend of ancient, futuristic, vintage and modern--no small feat, considering the amount of world-building that has to happen in a short amount of time. The sets and costumes go hand-in-hand, and nothing we see ever feels "jarring" or anachronistic. As for the cinematography, I can only imagine how hard it is to shoot fight scenes, and Guardians has some pretty insane ones. The prison escape? Come on!

4. Gone Girl
I'd give it: Best Adapted Screenplay (even though it CREEPED ME THE HELL OUT)
Why: This is another one that my boyfriend recommended and I...well, I didn't hate it, but oh dear God if I never see this film again it'll be too soon. Let's just say that if this were a list of the best feel-good films of 2014, Gone Girl would not have been included in this blog post. The self-indulgent Marvel fan in me would love to see Big Hero 6 or Guardians win Adapted Screenplay, but deep down I know this film deserves it more. I won't spoil the ending. Suffice it to say that Gone Girl packs a crap-ton of story into a standard-length movie, and it does so without cheap exposition or excessive use of montage. Bottom line: Casual Moviegoer Avery never wants to see this movie again, but Aspiring Screenwriter Avery wants to watch it another 500 times for research. So, yes, I'd have to say all in all, I'd give Gone Girl Best Adapted Screenplay.

3. Only Lovers Left Alive
I'd give it: Not sure if this one counts--technically it premiered in 2013, so does that qualify for 2014 Oscars? If so, I'd put Hiddleston in the running for Best Leading Actor against Christoph Waltz, and put the script against Life After Beth for Best Original Screenplay (more on those two in a minute).
Why: I'm not a huge fan of vampire movies. My favorite kind of monsters were always...well, monsters. Actual movie monsters. Like, the kind you'd find in 1950s B-movies. Up to now, my favorite "vampire movie" has been Nosferatu, and I'm not even sure that counts. But this movie is incredible. This is another one that I'd nominate for "best casting," if such an Oscar existed. The chemistry between Tilda Swinton and Tom Hiddleston crackles with an intensity that makes the cliched pairings of human-vampire in pop films like Twilight seem pathetic. The writing is amazing. And forget Loki (sorry, Loki)--this is Hiddleston's best performance yet. Sympathetic and, quite bluntly, sometimes fucking terrifying. If we're talking awards, he's a worthy opponent for Christoph Waltz. Which leads me to...

2. Big Eyes
I'd give it: Best Score, Amy Adams for Best Leading Actress, Christoph Waltz for Best Leading Actor, Tim Burton for Best Director
Why: As a longtime Burton fan I'll be first to admit he's put out some real stinkers in the last decade or so. I'm a fan of 90s Burton--Ed Wood, Edward Scissorhands, Nightmare Before Christmas, Sleepy Hollow. And I'm not kidding when I say that Big Eyes is better than any of them. Not only do Amy Adams and Christoph Waltz deliver fantastic performances, but the supporting cast does as well: Jason Schwartzman, Krysten Ritter, Danny Huston--amazing performances from all, and not one single sighting of Johnny Depp, Christopher Lee, or any of Burton's other "usuals." The score is beautiful, the decision to shoot on-location was a wise one indeed, and the single hint of Burton's whimsy--the "big eyes" that Margaret Keane sees on everyday people when the guilt of her lies catches up to her--is well-placed and doesn't feel at all overwrought. If Burton ever has a shot at winning Best Director or (even I don't have any optimism for this one) Best Picture, this is it.

1. Life after Beth
I'd give it: What WOULDN'T I give it. Aubrey Plaza for Best Supporting Actress, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Screenplay...dare I say, maybe even Best Picture?
Why: This is one of those beautiful, hilarious, heartbreaking independent films that will never, ever get one-sixteenth of the credit it deserves. It is hands-down the funniest, most heartfelt, most realistic zombie film I have ever seen. It makes Walking Dead feel overwrought and the films of Romero seem gaudy and cheap. While other zombie films are choked with jump-scares and cliches, Life after Beth relies on just the right mixture of humor and heartache to raise the tension. From the opening scenes, you'd never know it was a horror film. While the movie makes use of the comedic talents of much of the supporting cast (namely John C. Reilly, Cheryl Hines and Matthew Gray Gubler), there are some gut-punch moments that help ground a film that could otherwise be seen as a farce. There's some zombie-related satire, but it's subtle and pointed and doesn't seem to carry much of a political message, which quite frankly suits me just fine. The makeup is great, doesn't look low-budget at all. As for Aubrey Plaza--oh, how I wish I could burst into the Academy voting sessions and play them this film before they make their choices. Like Hiddleston in Only Lovers Left Alive, Plaza is handed a story wrought with genre expectations and, for all intents and purposes, blows those expectations out of the water with a performance that makes those movie monsters so human that you almost forget why they're considered monsters in the first place. I would be so thrilled to see this film get some love--any love--at the Oscars, because it was hands-down the best one I saw all year, and it's definitely the best zombie picture I've ever seen period. Sadly, I know that's just a fantasy.



I'm pretty sure that my film-school friends will see this list and go "That's it?!? What about Birdman? Boyhood? Noah? Selma? Avery, come on...what about Mockingjay?" All fine films, and I'm not saying they shouldn't be recognized as such. But I also believe that there are so many amazing movies out there that will never get formal recognition, and I wanted to acknowledge those even if the Academy wouldn't.

Besides...this is my personal top ten list. These might not be the movies that are universally recognized as the best that 2014 had to offer, but they're the films that impacted me the most.